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GRADE LEVEL: High School |
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THE
ACTIVITIES
HEY,
MOVE OVER, I'M SQUISHED
Description: Students will create a database and timeline of population growth and sprawl in their community and calculate percentages of growth over time. Using their research and calculations, they will develop smart growth plans for their communities based on forecasting and projection techniques.
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Through the research and calculations of this activity students will:
- Design and develop a population and urban growth database and timeline
- Understand mathematically how population growth and sprawl impact natural resources and human activity
- Gain an understanding of how data collection is crucial to city planning and development
- Experience the challenges of forecasting growth and development trends
PROCEDURE AND TEACHING SUGGESTIONS
Measuring and keeping accurate records or databases of population growth over time is very important in understanding sprawl. The rate at which natural resources are altered or depleted in a defined physical area is the critical factor in determining how much land can undergo development before it hits a point where the quantity, quality and availability of natural resources cannot keep up the human demand. We see this often in coastal areas and barrier islands, where people flock to live and enjoy the water resources for pleasure and sports activities — sailing, water-skiing, fishing, motor boating, kayaking and canoeing, swimming, etc. As well, it attracts developers, eager to be involved in the supply and demand of building homes for those who want to live near these favored areas.
The
environmental impact of overdevelopment and sprawl has been a major issue
in predominately coastal, mountain, river and lake regions all over the
U.S. and caused depletion of many of our natural resources. It is suggested
that we need to take a closer look at stricter zoning laws and permitting
processes. It is also suggested that perhaps we need stronger legislation
on draining wetlands, forest clearing, dredging rivers, lakes and inlets,
and drilling water wells.
At the dawn of the 21st century, the United States is the number one consumer of natural resources in the world. The amount and quality of natural resources remaining in the U.S. and many areas of the world are demonstrating faster depletion than renewal — the rate of use is higher than the rate of replenishment. The carrying capacity of soil, water, air, plants and animals cannot meet the heavy demands of development, recreation, transportation, and the impact of pollution. We must also take into account that many resources are simply nonrenewable, like coal, oil, and aquifers.
Carrying Capacity = Number of humans x rate of consumption of natural resources — rate of renewal of resources.
A good example of this concept formula is the reality of water scarcity in many states (not enough water to keep up with demand). In many areas of the U.S., we are experiencing carrying capacity problems when the nightly news tells us which days we can water our lawns or wash our cars — there simply isn't enough to go around at the rate we want it.
Maintaining a sustainable growth plan for city and suburban development will be critical to retaining the use of our natural resources. Many scientists are already saying that we, the Earth, are on a crash course with renewable resources and a ground zero with nonrenewable resources. Sprawl is the culprit in many cases.
Discuss with students the above information and ask them to give local examples of the cause and effect on resource quality and quantity. For example, set up a pyramid similar to the following:
After discussion, introduce students to the activity wherein they will:
- Choose a partner to share tasks
- As a pair, be assigned a certain geographic section of their school's county
- Visit the U.S. Census Bureau's Internet sites listed and learn about census statistics and how they are calculated, reported and used
- Discuss some of the techniques scientists, urban planners, developers etc. use to forecast future growth patterns and environmental impact
- Be introduced to
the 5 tasks of the project:
- First, collect data on the births and deaths in the area over the past 25 years,
- Second, collect the number of commercial and residential building permits recorded during this time and,
- Third, take a natural resources inventory of all undeveloped resources in your region.
- Fourth, create a linear timeline that integrates, birth, death, and development growth statistics for each of the past 25 years.
- Fifth, present a forecast that predicts the carrying capacity for natural resources and rate of growth for development and sprawl during the next 25 years. What will happen at the crossroads of each natural resource's carrying capacity and human development and use of it?
Let students know that all this data will be used to design a smart growth plan based on the positive and negative results of the statistical research they have performed. They will present their plans and discuss with the entire class the future sustainability (over the next twenty-five years) of natural resources in each of the regions. It will be very interesting to see how different or similar the forecast of each region will be.
Assist students with accessing county agencies to access building permits stats, as well birth and death certificates. Help students calculate the percentage increase of human population growth from one year to the next (in some cases, the current percentages may be less or equal to the previous year). Use the formula:
Last year's births divided by the current year's births X .01 = percent change
Next, help students calculate the percentage change in death rates. Subtract the birth and death percentages to find the actual population impact on the region. That people pass away and no longer use or impact natural resources is often forgotten in statistical reports, skewing population numbers on the amount or significance of human impact. Assist students with creating a natural resources inventory of the region they chose, including undeveloped acreage of land, unimpeded creeks and rivers, forests and fields, etc. Make sure each student pair has acquired all the necessary information and get them started on building their timeline — births, deaths, commercial and residential building permits, informal inventory of non-developed resources.
 Housing developments, strip malls, and the roads necessary to get to them in North Carolina alone forced the disappearance of more than 40,000 farms in the past 20 years. —UNCW
Chancellor James Leutze |
Direct students to design a smart growth plan for their community (using some of the forecasting techniques used by professionals). Let students present their projects and discuss as a class the various approaches to smart growth each student pair planned for their community.
STUDENT ACTIVITY
Your teacher has introduced the activity and you and your partner have selected a region in your county to study.
This activity requires 5 tasks:
- First, you will collect data on the births and deaths in your region over the past 25 years,
- Second, you will collect the number of commercial and residential building permits recorded during this time and,
- Third, you will take a natural resources inventory of all undeveloped resources in your region.
- Fourth, you will create a linear timeline that integrates, birth, death, and development growth statistics for each of the past 25 years.
- Fifth, you will present your timeline to the class and present a forecast that predicts the carrying capacity for natural resources and rate of growth for development and sprawl during your region's next 25 years. What will happen at the crossroads of each natural resource's carrying capacity and human development and use of it? Are their sustainable solutions? Is it too late?
Contact and schedule appointments with county agencies to access building permits stats, as well birth and death certificates.
Calculate the percentage increase of human population growth from one year to the next. Use the formula:
Last year's births divided by the current year's births X .01 = percent change
Next,
calculate the percentage change in death rates. Subtract the birth and
death percentages to find the actual population impact on the region.
That people pass away and no longer use or impact natural resources is
often forgotten in statistical reports, skewing population numbers on
the amount or significance of human impact.
Create a natural resources inventory of the your region, including undeveloped acreage of land, unimpeded creeks and rivers, forests and fields, etc.
Make sure you have acquired all the necessary information and get started on building your timeline — births (percentages), deaths (percentages), commercial and residential building permits, best-estimate inventory of non-developed resources.
After assessing the positive and negative aspects of the 25-year growth and development history of your region, design a smart growth plan for this region and its communities. Then, share and discuss with the whole class your conclusions and forecasts. Take turns reviewing all the other students' projects, contributing your thoughts and ideas on each pair's approaches to smart growth for their particular regions and communities. How and why are they similar or different?
EXTENSION
Arrange to present
some of the plans for smart growth to the community planning board, using
past trends and statistics you gathered and analyzed.
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© 2002 UNCW
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